Attack of the Moderates

A wise politico once told me that there are only two types of Politicians you can trust: Ultra Conservatives and Ultra Liberals, because you always know where they stand. 

That predictability makes telling the future that much easier, and irregardless of the final outcome, at ease to know what storm would be coming, even before it came.

That’s one of the many, many reasons why the Governor Arnold years were soo crazy.  He had both sides of the Aisle hopping, jumping and guessing his next move creating an unpredictable nightmare for both the Republicans and the Democrats in the Legislature. 

This is what is called a Moderate.  Someone who is neither Conservative nor Liberal.  For instance, a Moderate Republican is one who is Fiscally Conservative AND Socially Liberal.  An Arnold Republican.  A Newport Beach Republican.

The Newport Beach City Councils have always traditionally been relatively Moderate, with this current incarnation of the City Council being no different.  That is one of the reasons that Newport Beach has never had a Former City Councilmember get ELECTED to higher office in its 104 year history.

Well, that might change, and you can thank the just-passed Prop. 14 for it. Here comes a Open Primaries!  

The Primaries will no longer be Republicans running against Republicans, Democrats running against Democrats to face off in November.  Nope, it’s now going to be the top Two Vote Getters in the Primary, regardless of Political Party, making it onto November. 

What does this mean?  In the Republican-heavy 70^th Assembly District (before the upcoming redistricting), the top two vote getters will most likely both be Republicans, most likely meaning a moderate and conservative will face off in November. And who do you think the Democrats, and Arnold Republicans, will vote for in the General Election, a Conservative Republican or a Moderate Republican? 

You got it. 

Take this scenario to the more Liberal/Democrat heavy areas, and the same things will happen, the Liberals will start losing to the Moderate Democrats.  Pretty soon, the California Legislature will be run by a bunch of Moderate Republicans and Democrats, neither side being able to predict what the other will do. 

Nightmare.

How does this relate to Newport Beach?  Well it’s no secret that every Councilmember looks in the Mirror each morning and sees an Assemblyman.  I’ve personally heard wistful wishes for higher office from Councilman Steve Rosansky as well as rumors of future higher-office runs by Councilwoman Leslie Daigle.  But because neither could ever get confused for a Chuck DeVore-class Conservative, running for State Assembly would be WAY out of the question in the Conservative 70^th.  But now…with an Open Primary in the mix, how could they not run for State Assembly in the future?  Both would beat a Conservative candidate in a heartbeat.

Who do you think a Moderate Republican/Moderate Democrat/Liberal Democrat will vote for in the Open Primary and in the General Election, someone who votes to raise fees/welcomes Federal Earmarking/borrows $128 million to build an unnecessarily Pretty Taj Mahal - or someone who is staunchly Pro-Life/staunchly Anti-Tax/staunchly Anti-Union?  How do you think we got Tom Harman in office back the last time this Open Primary nightmare was attempted?

So I truly think that the Newport Beach City Council will graduate its first member of Legislature soon, soon, soon and the 100-year-old jinx will finally be broken. 

But so will the State of California.